AGD Intelligence

Where demand lives, where supply can meet it

Our read of the market across all companies and use cases mapped so far — web research, reports, and first-party conversations together. Demand is what the market needs; supply is where our roadmap is. The gap is where high demand meets a capability we can't yet ship.

AGD analysis
last run 1 day ago

Internal brief: where the demand actually concentrates

The lead. The corpus collapses into two tasks that recur far more than the company count suggests. One is *"place deformable/fragile food into a compartmented tray to a presentation spec"* — most of our 110 soft-body cases, and a task we can build now (works_in_demos, ~3mo). The other is *"de-nest fragile filled glass and assemble it into a device"* — the pharma fill-finish/autoinjector cluster, which carries the strong demand and the recall-grade failure cost, but needs primitives we can't yet build. The decision that matters: whether to pull rigid_insertion and press_fitting forward off their 6–12-month horizon to reach that second cluster, or ride the buildable food wedge for breadth.

What's jumping out:

  • The most-reused task in the whole dossier is meal-tray plating. The *same* deformable-food-into-tray task appears at all 10 airline caterers (dnata, DO&CO, EKFC, Flying Food, Gate Gourmet, LSG, Newrest, SATS, Servair, TajSATS), across fresh-prepared (Bakkavor, Greencore, Hearthside, Premium Brands, Fresh & Ready) and contract dining (Aramark, Sodexo, Compass). One capability, 30+ buyers, already in demos. This is the breadth play.
  • The build-next gap is the autoinjector. *"Insert prefilled glass syringe into autoinjector, snap/press housing closed"* is described in near-identical terms by Bayer, GSK, Merck, Lilly, Pfizer, Takeda, AbbVie, Roche, Sanofi, Novartis, AstraZeneca and J&J — with its twin, *fragile-glass-vial de-nesting*, in literally every pharma entry. This is the densest high-tactile + strong-demand pocket, and it sits on rigid_insertion + press_fitting (early_experiments). snap_fit is already in demos, so we're partway there.
  • Deep vs. wide. sterile_fill_finish is deep — 4 companies, 6 strong, and the *only* two validated signals we hold. cell_gene_therapy is small but uniformly high-tactile and surfaces a third distinct recurring task: sterile tubing/connector mating (AZ, BMS, Novartis). contract_dining is wide-but-shallow — 10 companies, mostly weak and inferred, no named programs.
  • Honesty, plainly: of 149 cases only 2 are customer-validated, both Lilly, and both are the *low-tactile, forgiving* tasks (cooler-box depal, tub handling) — not the high-tactile core our whole thesis rests on.

What to go confirm:

  • Lilly's door is open on tub/cooler handling — will that same relationship confirm appetite for the high-tactile syringe-into-autoinjector step we scored "strong" but never validated?
  • Is the autoinjector task truly one reusable part across the 12 pharma names, or does prefilled-syringe shoulder-geometry variability fragment it per customer?
  • In food, which of the named programs (gategroup/ABB, SATS Jurong, Newrest Montreal, Aramark RoboEatz) are displaceable vs. already served?
  • Will pharma actually buy a flexible cell where dedicated high-speed assembly already exists?

Generated 1 day ago · 2 of 149 use cases validated

1

Demand by primitive vs. our supply

PrimitiveDemandStrong / Promising / WeakCompaniesOur supplyHorizon
Soft-body handling110 use cases5010 / 42 / 56Works in demos~3 months
Rigid insertion41 use cases228 / 17 / 16Early experiments~6 months
Press-fitting31 use cases206 / 13 / 12Early experiments~12 months
Snap-fit closure26 use cases204 / 11 / 10Works in demos~3 months
Cable routing13 use cases112 / 5 / 6Works in demos~6 months

Demand is almost entirely inferred from research today; the "validated" column shows how much is confirmed first-party. A high demand count on an early-experiments or not-on-roadmap supply state is where the team's next focus likely earns the most.

2

Focus map — demand vs. our readiness

Each bubble is a primitive; size is how many companies show that demand. Up = more demand. Right = more ready to build. Top-right is land-now; top-left is build-next (high demand we can't yet ship).

Not readyReady to buildDemand (use cases)Soft-body handling110Rigid insertion41Press-fitting31Snap-fit closure26Cable routing13
3

Where demand lives, by industry

IndustryCompaniesUse casesStrong / Promising / WeakFit (Exc/Strong/Mod/Weak/Poor)
food packaging35866 / 29 / 510 / 11 / 17 / 6 / 1
pharma lab14356 / 20 / 70 / 3 / 9 / 0 / 0
medical device8114 / 4 / 30 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 0
cpg cosmetics250 / 1 / 40 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 0
other240 / 1 / 30 / 0 / 1 / 2 / 2
automotive130 / 1 / 20 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 0
3c final assembly230 / 0 / 30 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 0
textile garment110 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
agriculture111 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0